Economy & affordabilityOpinionJuly 23, 20265 min read

Why Americans Should Trust Republicans on the Economy: The Record, the Reality, and the Path Forward

As the 2026 midterms approach, one issue towers above the rest for American voters: the cost of living. Groceries, gas, housing, and healthcare dominate conversations at kitchen tables across the country. Poll after poll confirms it—prices and affordability are the top concern, often by a wide margin. Voters are right to demand results. The question is who has the better track record and the better plan to deliver relief.

By No Left Turns

Sources reviewed July 23, 2026

Engraved editorial illustration of household groceries, a house key, pay envelope, gas pump handle, new home construction, farmland, American industry, and the U.S. Capitol. — No Left Turns editorial illustration. Primary records are separated from unresolved allegations and the author’s conclusions.

The data makes a clear case for trusting the Republican approach under President Trump over the Democratic record of the Biden years.

The Biden Era: A Cost-of-Living Crisis Created

From January 2021 to January 2025, cumulative consumer prices rose roughly 21–21.5%. Inflation peaked near 9.1%—the highest in four decades. Food-at-home prices, energy, and shelter led the surge. Real wages (purchasing power after inflation) fell significantly in the early years of the administration and never fully recovered the ground lost for many workers by the end of the term.

This was not an act of God. Massive fiscal stimulus, regulatory expansion, energy restrictions, and supply-chain disruptions combined to drive prices higher. Families felt it every time they filled a cart or a tank. The high price levels that resulted became the sticky baseline that still shapes daily life. That is the inheritance Trump received.

The Trump Record: Stabilizing Inflation and Restoring Purchasing Power

In the first year-plus of Trump’s second term, the rate of inflation was substantially lower for an extended period—averaging in the mid-2% range through much of 2025, far closer to the Federal Reserve’s target than the Biden peak. Real average hourly earnings showed early gains as wages outpaced prices, recovering some of the purchasing power lost in the prior administration. Specific categories improved: eggs and certain staples saw declines at times; prescription drugs and other items registered relief through targeted actions; housing price growth slowed from the rapid run-up of the previous years, with rents cooling in many markets.

Tax relief, including measures benefiting working families, put more money in paychecks. Energy policy shifted toward production and permitting rather than restriction. Deregulation aimed at lowering the cost of building, farming, and manufacturing. These are supply-side tools: expand what the economy produces so prices can ease over time.

A temporary spike in 2026—headline CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year in May before cooling to 3.5% in June—was driven heavily by energy prices tied to the Iran conflict and disruptions in global supply. Gas prices moved back toward and above $4 a gallon nationally at points. That pain is real and visible. Yet it is distinct from the broad, sustained surge of 2021–2022. Many voters themselves view the Iran-related increases as short-term. Energy independence remains a priority for a strong majority precisely because external shocks hurt less when America produces more at home.

Critics focus on the absolute levels of prices and recent gas costs. Fair enough—voters feel the checkout total, not the year-over-year rate. But the trajectory matters. Trump inherited elevated prices and a damaged real-wage baseline. The early path under his administration was lower inflation and positive real wage movement. That is measurable progress relative to the prior record.

Why the Republican Approach Works Better

Democrats have repeatedly favored large-scale spending, expanded entitlements, and tighter regulation as the primary tools. Those choices fueled the demand-side and regulatory pressures that helped produce the 2021–2022 inflation spike. The results were higher prices and eroded purchasing power.

Republicans emphasize production, competition, and removing barriers. More domestic energy lowers fuel and electricity costs and reduces vulnerability to foreign disruptions. Faster housing construction through reduced zoning and permitting obstacles expands supply. Healthcare competition, price transparency, and reforms targeting middlemen put downward pressure on medical costs. Targeted tax cuts increase take-home pay immediately. Fiscal restraint over time helps keep interest rates and inflation lower.

These are not theoretical. Early indicators—slower inflation for much of 2025, real wage gains, specific price relief in key categories, and legislative efforts on housing supply and energy permitting—align with that philosophy. The Republican Study Committee’s affordability framework and bipartisan-leaning housing measures point in the same direction: expand supply of the things families need rather than simply subsidize demand.

Voters already sense the difference in direction. A notable share say the economy is better than under Biden. Energy independence enjoys broad support. The challenge is translating policy wins into felt relief at the grocery store and gas pump—and communicating that link clearly.

The Path Forward

Americans should trust the Republican record and agenda on the economy because it prioritizes the fundamentals that actually lower costs over time: more energy, more housing, more competition in healthcare, fewer regulatory obstacles, and tax relief that leaves more money in family budgets. The Biden-era alternative produced the largest sustained price surge in a generation. The Trump approach stabilized the rate of increase, began restoring purchasing power, and is positioned to address the remaining sticky costs through production rather than more of the same spending and regulation.

The midterms will test whether voters reward results and direction over absolute levels still shaped by the previous administration. The evidence favors the side focused on abundance, not scarcity.

Sources and Citations

The article’s factual claims are grounded in official inflation and earnings data, direct polling releases, federal gasoline-price data, and the policy documents listed below. The underlying measurements are distinct from the article’s causal interpretations and policy conclusions.

Inflation and Price Data

May 2026 CPI: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the all-items CPI rose 4.2% over the year ended May 2026. Energy prices rose 23.5%, making energy the principal driver of the acceleration. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economics Daily, June 17, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm
June 2026 CPI: BLS reported that headline CPI fell 0.4% over the month and rose 3.5% over the year ended June 2026; the all-items-less-food-and-energy index was unchanged for the month and rose 2.6% over the year. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 14 and July 17, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-3-5-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2026.htm
January 2021 to January 2025 cumulative CPI: BLS lists the all-items CPI-U index at 261.582 in January 2021 and 317.671 in January 2025. Applying the BLS percent-change formula produces a 21.44% increase. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/calculating-percent-changes.htm and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02122025.htm
June 2022 peak: BLS reported a 9.1% 12-month CPI increase in June 2022, the largest since November 1981. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07132022.htm
2025 year-end inflation: BLS reported a 2.7% increase in the all-items CPI over the 12 months ended December 2025, with core CPI at 2.6%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm

Real Wages and Purchasing Power

BLS reported that real average hourly earnings rose 0.8% from November 2024 to November 2025, as nominal hourly earnings increased 3.5% while CPI-U increased 2.7%. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/real-average-hourly-earnings-increased-0-8-percent-from-november-2024-to-november-2025.htm
BLS reported that real average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from March 2025 to March 2026, following a 1.3% year-over-year increase in February 2026. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/real-average-hourly-earnings-increased-0-3-percent-from-march-2025-to-march-2026.htm
White House summaries of BLS-linked data provide the administration’s interpretation of real-wage gains, housing inflation, and specific category declines. https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/02/president-trump-delivers-another-inflation-win-real-wages-surge-price-relief-reaches-americans/

Affordability and Voter Priorities

Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, July 2026: Inflation and the economy remained voters’ top concerns; 50% said the economy was better than under Biden, 67% prioritized energy independence to avoid global price shocks, and Trump’s approval on inflation was 35%. https://harvardharrispoll.com/press-release-july-2026/
Strength In Numbers / Verasight, July 14–17, 2026: 36% named prices and inflation the single most important national problem; 59% said higher gas prices forced spending cutbacks; 51% blamed the Trump administration most for current gas prices; and Trump’s net approval on prices and inflation was –42. https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-21-july-strength-in-numbers-verasight-poll
Pew Research Center, May 2026: 73% called healthcare affordability a very big national problem and 66% said the same of inflation. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/05/11/americans-see-health-care-costs-deficit-inflation-as-big-problems-facing-the-nation/
Navigator Research battleground survey, June 2026: Inflation and cost of living ranked as the number-one priority; groceries, gas and transportation, healthcare, and housing were leading cost burdens. https://navigatorresearch.org/americans-in-the-battleground-see-rising-costs-but-are-unsure-who-can-lower-them/
Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey, May 2026 wave: Cost of living and the economy ranked as top midterm issues across partisan groups, with grocery affordability central to voting decisions. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/06/grocery-bills-and-the-2026-midterm-elections.html

Gas Prices

EIA’s weekly national series placed regular gasoline at $4.001 per gallon for the week of July 20, 2026, after readings above $4 earlier in June. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epmr_pte_dpgal_w.htm

Policy and Framing Sources

The Republican Study Committee’s Making the American Dream Affordable Again framework proposes housing-supply, energy-permitting, healthcare-competition, family tax-relief, and spending provisions. https://rsc-pfluger.house.gov/media/press-releases/making-american-dream-affordable-again-rsc-officially-unveils-reconciliation
The IRS describes the individual and worker provisions of the Working Families Tax Cuts, including standard-deduction changes and deductions for qualified tips, overtime pay, and qualifying car-loan interest. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/working-families-tax-cuts-individuals-and-workers
White House actions and agreements on prescription-drug pricing document the administration’s policy claims and implementation steps. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-launches-trumprx-gov-to-bring-lower-drug-prices-to-american-patients/

Evidence Boundaries

BLS data establish measured changes in consumer prices and real earnings; they do not by themselves assign all inflation to a president or prove that a particular policy caused a later price movement. Poll results are snapshots that vary with wording, sample, timing, and population. Administration and congressional sources document policy actions and their sponsors’ claims; the article’s judgments about responsibility, effectiveness, and the preferable economic agenda remain opinion and analysis.

Documentation

Sources & documents

Factual claims were checked against the primary material below. Conclusions and policy recommendations are the author’s opinion and analysis.

See a factual issue or a stronger primary source? Send it to No Left Turns on X. Material corrections will be noted on the article.